Housing Starts Drop 44%

By December 11, 2014Economic Indicators

Housing starts dropped by 44 percent in Abbotsford-Mission in November compared to November of 2013 and the numbers, though higher than October of this year, continue to be very small for a Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) the size of Abbotsford-Mission.

In all of Abbotsford-Mission a total of 17 single detached homes were begun in November compared to only 23 last year.

The number of all other housing starts in the area dropped from 45 in 2013 to 25 in 2014.

Other major Western Canadian centers saw increases as well

Vancouver -5%
Victoria -18%
Kelowna -34%
Edmonton +33%
Calgary -36%
Saskatoon +100%
Regina -52%
Winnipeg – 47%

Economic development was a key plank in the platform of both Mayor-Elect Henry Braun and the four new councilors from AbbotsfordFIRST.

Housing starts are one of the biggest drivers of economic activity in the economy.

View the CMHC tables here.

The National Picture

OTTAWA, December 8, 2014 — The trend measure of housing starts in Canada was 195,792 units in November compared to 195,796 in October, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR)1 of housing starts.

“The trend essentially held steady for a third consecutive month in November,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s Chief Economist. “This is in line with our expectations for 2014, of a stable national picture with new home building concentrated in multiple starts, particularly in Quebec, British Columbia and Ontario.”

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of Canada’s housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR was 195,620 units in November, up from 183,659 in October. The SAAR of urban starts increased to 176,343 in November, from 164,784 in October. The increase was concentrated in multiple urban starts, which reached 112,583 in November, while single-detached urban starts decreased to 63,760 units.

Growth in urban housing starts was led by British Columbia and followed by Quebec, Ontario and Atlantic Canada, while urban housing starts decreased in the Prairies.

Rural starts2 were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 19,277 units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data is also available in English and French at the following link:Preliminary Housing Starts Tables

As Canada’s authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and advice to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

1 All starts figures in this release, other than actual starts and the trend estimate, are seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) — that is, monthly figures adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation and multiplied by 12 to reflect annual levels. By removing seasonal ups and downs, seasonal adjustment allows for a comparison from one season to the next and from one month to the next. Reporting monthly figures at annual rates indicates the annual level of starts that would be obtained if the monthly pace was maintained for 12 months. This facilitates comparison of the current pace of activity to annual forecasts as well as to historical annual levels.

2 CMHC estimates the level of starts in centres with a population of less than 10,000 for each of the three months of the quarter, at the beginning of each quarter. During the last month of the quarter, CMHC conducts the survey in these centres and revises the estimate.

Information on this release:

Kate Munroe
CMHC Media Relations

Follow CMHC on Twitter @CMHC_ca

Additional data is available upon request.

Preliminary Housing Start Data
November 2014
October 2014 November 2014
Trend1, all areas 195,796 195,792
SAAR, all areas 183,659 195,620
SAAR, rural areas 18,875 19,277
SAAR, urban centres2
Single-detached 65,676 63,760
Multiples 99,108 112,583
Total 164,784 176,343
Atlantic, urban centres2 5,979 6,564
Quebec, urban centres2 32,028 37,110
Ontario, urban centres2 50,338 55,833
Prairies, urban centres2 53,104 47,271
British Columbia, urban centres2 23,335 29,565
Canada November 2013 November 2014
Actual, all areas 17,792 17,765
Actual, rural areas 1,823 1,756
Actual, urban centres2
November – Single-detached 5,761 5,725
November – Multiples 10,208 10,284
November – Total 15,969 16,009
January to November – Single-detached 58,500 57,764
January to November – Multiples 97,738 101,122
January to November – Total 156,238 158,886

Source: CMHC
1 The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR).
2 Urban centres with a population of 10,000 and over.
Detailed data available upon request.

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