Housing Starts Up In October

By November 19, 2014Economic Indicators

Housing starts increased by 60 percent in Abbotsford-Mission in October compared to October of 2013 though the numbers were still very small for a Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) the size of Abbotsford-Mission.

In all of Abbotsford-Mission a total of 28 single detached homes were begun in October compared to only 17 last year.
The number of all other housing starts in the area rose from 3 in 2013 to 4 in 2014.

Other major Western Canadian centers saw increases as well

Vancouver -5%
Victoria -18%
Kelowna -34%
Edmonton +-5%
Calgary +21%
Saskatoon +12%
Regina -19%
Winnipeg – 8%

Economic development was a key plank in the platform of both Mayor-Elect Henry Braun and the four new councilors from AbbotsfordFIRST.

Housing starts are one of the biggest drivers of economic activity in the economy.

View the CMHC tables here.

The National Picture

OTTAWA, November 10, 2014 The trend measure of housing starts in Canada was 195,707 units in October compared to 197,763 in September, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR)1 of housing starts.

“The decrease in the trend reflects a decline, in October, of starts of multi-unit dwellings, including condominiums,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s Chief Economist. “Given the elevated level of condominium units under construction, our expectation is that condominium starts will continue to trend lower over the coming months.”

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of Canada’s housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR was 183,604 units in October, down from 197,355 in September. The SAAR of urban starts decreased to 164,683 in October, from 177,053 in September. The decline was concentrated in multiple urban starts, which decreased to 98,673 in October, while single-detached urban starts increased to 66,010 units.

The decline in urban housing starts was observed in all five regions in October, with declines led by British Columbia and followed by Quebec, Atlantic Canada, the Prairies and Ontario.

Rural starts2 were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 18,921 units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data is also available in English and French at the following link:Preliminary Housing Starts Tables

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 65 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of high quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable housing solutions. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making informed decisions.

1 All starts figures in this release, other than actual starts and the trend estimate, are seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) — that is, monthly figures adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation and multiplied by 12 to reflect annual levels. By removing seasonal ups and downs, seasonal adjustment allows for a comparison from one season to the next and from one month to the next. Reporting monthly figures at annual rates indicates the annual level of starts that would be obtained if the monthly pace was maintained for 12 months. This facilitates comparison of the current pace of activity to annual forecasts as well as to historical annual levels.

2 CMHC estimates the level of starts in centres with a population of less than 10,000 for each of the three months of the quarter, at the beginning of each quarter. During the last month of the quarter, CMHC conducts the survey in these centres and revises the estimate.

Information on this release:

Kate Munroe
CMHC Media Relations


Additional data is available upon request.

Preliminary Housing Start Data
October 2014
September 2014 October 2014
Trend1, all areas 197,763 195,707
SAAR, all areas 197,355 183,604
SAAR, rural areas 20,302 18,921
SAAR, urban centres2
Single-detached 62,514 66,010
Multiples 114,539 98,673
Total 177,053 164,683
Atlantic, urban centres2 6,429 5,944
Quebec, urban centres2 34,811 31,805
Ontario, urban centres2 51,415 50,384
Prairies, urban centres2 56,778 53,230
British Columbia, urban centres2 27,620 23,320
Canada October 2013 October 2014
Actual, all areas 17,687 16,130
Actual, rural areas 1,813 1,728
Actual, urban centres2
October – Single-detached 5,683 5,843
October – Multiples 10,191 8,559
October – Total 15,874 14,402
January to October – Single-detached 52,739 52,039
January to October – Multiples 87,530 90,838
January to October – Total 140,269 142,877

Source: CMHC
1 The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR).
2 Urban centres with a population of 10,000 and over.
Detailed data available upon request.

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