By Mike Archer. One of the terrible things which has happened to public discourse since the advent of the Mad Men of the last generation is that just about everybody who speaks in public or deals with the public seems to think the only important thing is ‘the spin’.

A lot of people who aren’t any good at it think that they are.

And so, the vast majority of politicians, bureaucrats and a disturbing and increasingly large number journalists and media organizations no longer focus on the truth but on what they are going to say and how it is going to be interpreted.

Just as in war, truth is the first casualty in this silly game. One could argue that, in the battle to reverse the economic decline our city has experienced a lot of truth has been dispensed with.

But is truth really that dispensable for a community; especially one like Abbotsford, which is trying to come to grips with some very serious and disturbing issues in the way it conducts itself? In addition to the revelations about the sickening way we have been dealing with our poor and homeless, there is a decade-long inability or unwillingness to deal with the economic truth about our city.

A time for the Truth

There are times when people need to know the truth if they are going to make good decisions. This is one of those times in Abbotsford.

All of the development and economic growth appears to be either stopping in Langley or driving through to Chilliwack. Both communities seem to be doing a much better job with their social problems, most notably homelessness. By spreading the available funds for dealing with homelessness around to organizations other than the Sally Ann, building housing for the homeless and generally giving them a helping hand.

These are not unrelated issues.

A caring city will, it turns out, tend to be more attractive to people and businesses looking for somewhere to build their future. As opposed to what appears more and more to be all we have to offer – a cheap deal on some land, outrageous tax breaks or the fact that taxpayers in Abbotsford appear to be rubes who will pay any amount of money or sign any deal just to get you here.

sales dropWhile all economic indicators indicate Abbotsford is a city in crisis, the Economic Development Department and most of the city’s politicians talk about Abbotsford as though it were some sort of diamond in the rough about to explode with economic growth.

Well … it’s not. Housing starts are down, building permit values are down, real estate sales are down, unemployment is up.

The paint is pealing on the ‘For Sale or Lease’ signs of too many mothballed developments and we have a world-famous problem with the homeless. It is high time those who are spending our money start speaking the truth.

You wouldn’t guess any of these truths listening to either the mayor or the Economic Development Department.

Where did you here That?

A classic but very revealing example is our own embattled mayor’s insistence on saying that Abbotsford’s population is 137,000. Now, that’s lower than the Economic Development Department’s 141,000 figure and less than the 138,000 figure he used in January but, setting that aside . . . none of those figures is true.

City population statistics can vary widely depending on the source of the information you are quoting. Depending on the objectives, needs and desires of the organization quoting the figures they can vary by many thousands. Below are the figures quoted by Abbotsford’s Economic Development Department and those of Census Canada.

The difference – The Economic Development Department guesses . . . Census Canada counts.

You will notice that in the Economic Development Department’s table that for population numbers they quote ‘BC Stats’ but for all other population related information (demographics, urban-rural divide etc., they use Census Canada)

That’s because the data collected by BC Stats is made up of estimates fabricated by municipalities in order, among other things, to influence the amount of provincial funding they receive.

Abbotsford Economic Development Department’s Figures:
– 141,000 in 2011

Census Canada’s Figures:
– 133,497 in 2011

The City's Figures

The City’s Figures

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Census Canada's Figures

Census Canada’s Figures

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That’s a difference of 7,500 people. If you compound that spread over the years for which the City predicts things it grows to quite a chasm. The important bit of information here is that what the mayor keeps saying is simply not true.

When population growth and expected population growth are used as sales tools in presentations to developers, retailers, investors and real estate property speculators it is important that they be correct.

We aren’t selling used watches from the side of the road here … we’re supposed to be telling the truth to potential citizens and investors.

Facts and Credibility

The real problem that develops out of all of this willingness to bend the truth is this:

SalesmanI’m willing to bet that most business people, citizens and organizations in Abbotsford would tell you we have a population of about 140,000 and we are expected to grow to somewhere near 170,000 over the next five to ten years.

I did an informal poll of some of the business people and others I rely on for grounding in these matters and they all more or less agreed that those were the figures they had heard. One even showed me an article published in Western Investor a few years ago quoting a population of 172,000. After a bit of checking we were able to discover that the figure quoted included Mission.

We expect a little more sizzle than steak when Vince sells ShamWows on TV. We expect a little more real facts and credibility from our civic officials.

On Abbotsford Today back in January 2013 [An Embarrassing Afternoon For Council], we reported that both Councillors Henry Braun and John Smith corrected Banman at a public Executive Committee meeting when he insisted on using the 138,000 figure when talking about Abbotsford’s population. When staff were asked to get involved, they confirmed that Abbotsford’s population, according to recent census data, is 133,000, not the 138,000 Banman was using. As John Smith explained to the mayor, the BC Stats figures are literally made up of estimates, created by municipalities, not based in fact, and used to secure funding from the provincial government.

It is all very well to put a positive face on things and to remember how one is going to be interpreted when one speaks publicly or publishes information. But there is a moment in time when, if all you concentrate on is the spin and forget about the truth you are no longer doing yourself or anybody else any good.

If we are going to base long term planning on fictitious estimates and pointless, unbelievable graphs that might have been bought online for all we know, then the enormous disconnect between the people of Abbotsford and City Hall will simply keep growing.

How do you think the decreasing number of business people and developers who are buying into the falsehoods peddled by the Economic Development Department (because that’s what they are) feel when they discover that Abbotsford actually has a smaller population than advertised, a lower growth rate than they thought, the highest unemployment rate in Western Canada, an antiquated water and sewer system and one of the highest tax rates in the Lower Mainland for some of the worst level of services?

How do you think they feel when they get their first water bill (unless, of course, their rate increase has been postponed, unlike the residential rate increase)?

Here’s another example from the same meeting:“Perhaps the most revealing moment of the meeting came when Councillor Henry Braun pointed out that City staff cannot seem to get their projections right. The entire Abbotsford Water Shortage-Surplus Fiasco was based on outdated, poorly enunciated, unrealistic graphs based on faulty information.

We almost sank $300 million into a new water supply we didn’t need because City staff don’t know how to make or read a graph. Their graph had our water needs rising at a 45 degree angle while actual usage was plummeting.”

Abbotsford Today Summary of graph presented to Council showing water demand predictions going up to the sky while actual usage was plummeting.

Abbotsford Today Summary of graph presented to Council showing water demand predictions going up to the sky while actual usage was plummeting.

Trust and Leadership

It all comes down to trust and over the last ten years both the Parks and Rec department and the Economic Development Department have used up all their mulligans.

Unless we start looking for developers, investors and businesses who understand that:

  1. Our local economy is in the doldrums and is poorly run by a few self-interested individuals
  2. We have water and sewer pipes that cannot accommodate the economic growth our politicians and bureaucrats are talking about
  3. We have social problems which our politicians and bureaucrats attempt to deal with buy funneling funds to religious organizations, denying healthcare to addicts, and sending in our private police force and the bylaw department to harass and poison those homeless deemed ‘unacceptable’
  4. Our population is not 140,000 or even 137,000 and we have no idea if, given the above facts about Abbotsford, it is going to increase at anywhere near the pace of our neighbours
  5. Oh … and I almost forgot … nobody talks about any of this stuff in case someone finds out. That way, none of it ever gets fixed.

LeadershipIf you are intent on making your fortune by buying cheap land in downtown Abbotsford or on the Railway Lands and watching your investment grow as the whole area transforms itself into some sort of commercial mecca . . . take a look around . . . if you’re willing to help us do a better job of running our City we welcome you with open arms. If you’re here to make a quick buck, based on the projections the guys at City Hall gave you . . . boy, have I got a bridge for you.

More importantly, if the mayor, the Economic Development Department and some of council actually believe this stuff to be true . . . how are we ever going to solve any of these problems?

It is time for leadership in this community. A bunch of amateurs have been screwing around with our City and over the last decade they have done an enormous amount of damage. They have been taken advantage of by developers and business people who have only their own bottom line to think of and who may or may not give a damn about the rest of the community or its future.

At a critical moment in our history we are saddled with a mayor who thinks he can sing his way out of a crisis, stonewall the media, call an international incident an internal matter and push on with his battered and bungled agenda with three wheels in the ditch.

Someone has to take real responsibility for the Abbotsford Chicken Manure Homeless Incident, deal with the fact that this is the way we’ve dealt with our citizens for years and put a stop to it.

How can you put a stop to something you won’t even admit exists?

Until Abbotsford’s business, political and administrative elite develops the ability to be truthful with the citizens of Abbotsford, then the impressions which people around the world are developing of cronyism, favouritism, religious intolerance and of our pogroms against the poor, the addicted and the disadvantaged, will remain as the open sores they are today.

And there aren’t any glossy brochures or little white lies that will help us unless somebody in this city is ready to stand up and be counted … and tell the truth.

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