By Jordan Bateman. Like the proverbial girlfriend we just can’t seem to get over, the Harmonized Sales Tax has dominated British Columbia’s collective political and economic mind for the past four years.
We curse our old college buddy Gordon for introducing us to her in the first place. He rushed us into a blind date with the HST because he saw B.C.’s budget numbers going south, but we should have taken the time to get to know her better. What makes her tick? What could she bring to a relationship? Gordon moved on – with a quick kick from us – but the HST stayed behind.
Nearly every political and economic debate in this province over the past few years has its roots in the HST. The Liberal leadership race started after Campbell resigned over his handling of the HST. The film industry wants a bigger subsidy, in part because Ontario’s HST gives them an advantage over B.C. Unemployment numbers, investment climate, consumer confidence, opinion polls and taxpayer burden have all been affected by the HST.
A couple of summers ago, our wild uncle Bill convinced us to ask 1.6 million of our closest friends for their opinion on whether it was time to split up. Nearly 55 per cent of them said it was time to kick her to the curb, so we did.
But breakups are never easy, and this one has dragged on too long – to the detriment of B.C.’s economy. It won’t officially be over until 11:59 p.m., March 31st.
Meanwhile, the fifth provincial budget of this relationship will be unveiled on February 19th.
Gordon Campbell swore up and down before the spring 2009 election that the 2009-10 budget deficit was going to be $495 million. As revenues plunged and spending grew, a mini-budget that fall showed how wrong he was, and the deficit ended up being $1.8 billion.
In 2010-11, the HST transition payment from the federal government came in, and an expected $1.7 billion deficit was cut to $309 million – close to balance. But 2011-12 saw that HST transition money paid back, meaning the expected deficit grew to $1.84 billion, doubling from its initial projections. Another $1.47 billion deficit looks to be in the cards for 2012-13, up half a billion dollars from the budget day projection.
Provincial budgets have been on a roller coaster of deficits, due in no small part to HST policy shifting so radically, so quickly.
All of these HST dips and turns make grading next month’s B.C. budget – the document on which the provincial Liberals will run for re-election – very difficult. How will we know it’s balanced, as they promise? Will revenue projections be on the mark – given that no one is really sure what the impact of our final HST breakup will be? Or can we expect a modest surplus to be declared on budget day, only to see B.C. sink into the hole shortly thereafter?
No matter what, on April 1st, the HST finally moves on, and we can get on with our lives. Sure, she’ll be mentioned from time to time and we’ll no doubt stumble across her once in a while on Facebook or Twitter, but we’re finally breaking up, and we are never, ever, ever getting back together.
Well, for a few years anyway. That’s the thing with exes: they can pop up at the oddest times.
Jordan Bateman is the BC Director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation
“No matter what, on April 1st, the HST finally moves on, and we can get on with our lives. Sure, she’ll be mentioned from time to time and we’ll no doubt stumble across her once in a while on Facebook or Twitter, but we’re finally breaking up, and we are never, ever, ever getting back together.
The problem with focusing all your attention on one thing, say taxes and the level of those taxes, is that you inevitably miss the boomerang that drops you when it crashes into the back of your head because you were not paying attention to Reality.
Finished with the HST?
When for the next 4 years the first thing whoever governs BC has to do is cut the $300 million HST repayment due Ottawa out the Budget?
When those who do not enjoy the largess of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation on which to live, find simply surviving challenged by the precipitous drop back to GST rebate cheque levels?
Then there are the unknown effects that voters refusing to pay 1 cent more towards the increasing costs of the services they demand from government, will have on limiting the ability of the government of BC to borrow or what levels of premiums (extra interest costs) the decision will impose.
Finally there is the increased rationing, the cuts to and elimination of services that have occurred in the current fiscal year as a result of repealing the HST and the rationing, the cuts to and elimination of services that will continue to occur year after year after year as a result of repealing the HST.
Whether you think repealing the HST was justified or the most financially irresponsible action ever taken by a financially irresponsible electorate……
……………the consequences of repealing the HST will be with BC for years, decades. Meaning BC is not ‘done’ with the HST, nor is the HST done with BC.