The latest prediction from BC2013.com has voters in Abbotsford-West ready to switch allegiances in Tuesday’s provincial election.
From BC2013.com, 12/05/13
My preliminary election prediction is still that – preliminary. There will be some tweaks and changes on seats that I believe will be tighter than normal. Also, when I issue the final election prediction, I will give margin of tightness (i.e. less than 5% margin between the top two candidates will be “tight” and greater than 5% will be “safe”) and also some colour commentary on what made the decision so.
The last election prediction was made on March 4, and this prediction supersedes that.
To summarize the changes, the BC Liberals’ scenario looks less glum and they appear to be in a position to salvage a decent number of seats in the upcoming election. It is nowhere close to a majority as I believe there are too many seats out of their reach. Putting a long story short, they will have bled about 10% of their vote from the 2009 election and while some of that will go to the other parties, much of it will disappear into the “non-voter” void that is never reflected in percentages.
Electoral districts in particular that may change predictions (this list is not exhaustive):
Abbotsford West
Boundary-Similkameen
Kootenay East
Nechako Lakes
Oak Bay-Gordon Head
Peace River South
Vancouver-False Creek
Also, I will give the following popular vote projection, again, subject to tweaking over the next few days:
BC NDP – 44%
BC Liberals – 35%
BC Green – 11%
BC Conservative – 7%
Others – 3%
The preliminary seat projection, subject to change over the weekend:
BC NDP – 56
BC Liberal – 23
BC Conservative – 1
BC Green – 1
Independents – 4
I find it interesting that the BC NDP has appeared to be taking decisions to maximize their chances of winning a majority government, rather than trying to win the most seats in the legislature. You can read what I mean by this by clicking here.
This election is also unusual in that we are seeing multiple independents with very credible campaigns running. Given the current disgust of the public with both major political parties, this should bode well for them. These are: John van Dongen (Abbotsford South), Bob Simpson (Cariboo North), Vicki Huntington (Delta South), Arthur Hadland (Peace River North). (Proactive Disclosure: I am the financial agent for the John van Dongen campaign.)
The lone BC Conservative projected is up in Peace River South; electoral districts with low populations and low voter turnout warrant very special consideration and there is quite good evidence to suggest that this will be a tight 3-way contest. If the Alberta Wildrose Alliance was running in the two Peace River ridings, they would probably win seats here in BC.
The lone BC Green projected is in Saanich North and the Islands.
A final election prediction, with more comments and analysis, will be posted on May 13, 2013.
Purpose of BC2013.com
BC Election 2013 provide analysis concerning publicly released polling leading up to the legislated election date of May 14, 2013. In addition, there will be occasional commentary on public policy and also a projection of the outcome of the election.
Who authors BC2013.com?
The site is authored by Sacha Peter, who has a B.Sc. in Physics from the University of British Columbia and is a Certified Management Accountant. Some of his other past and current professional experiences include working as a systems engineer for a large company specializing in air traffic control and air defence systems, policy and communications work in the political/public domain, financial analysis, accounting work and writing.
Sacha is the owner and managing director of Divestor Investments, which provides consulting services in the financial, business accounting and public relation domains. Sacha was also twice locally elected by the people of Chilliwack as an independent park commissioner for the Cultus Lake Park Board in November 2008 and November 2011. Sacha lives in the Chilliwack, BC.